Two Years On: a shifting debate on immigration

 

Two years ago last night and into this morning marked a personal turning point in my political journey. It was the night of the riots in my city of origin—a moment that shook not only the city but Ireland as a whole. A tragic event in which children and others were attacked by a mentally unstable person was seized upon by agitators who fuelled the flames of racial hatred on the streets of our capital. An Garda Síochána worked gallantly but were literally on the run in Dublin city centre until reinforcements arrived including many from outside the capital.  Ireland woke up the following morning.  Or did it?

The rise of far-right politics across Europe, the USA, and now Ireland should serve as a wake-up call. Extremist elements, marked by violence and subversion, are gaining traction across society and especially among young men and in urban working-class communities. A toxic ‘strong man’ culture linked to fear towards others who do not look, behave, love or speak like us has emerged. The Others are to be excluded, removed or in some cases eliminated.  In a blasphemous and evil way, the purveyors of hatred and division use the name of my Saviour – himself a migrant and a prophet of peace and universal fraternity – to create a world of chaos, division and hatred towards the other.

In the hours and days that followed the race riots on 23 November 2023, I began writing. What started as scattered notes eventually grew into a blog series, launched in February 2024, titled the Mythbuster series on immigration. The series set out to challenge some of the most persistent myths about immigration in Ireland:

These were addressed under the following headings:

1.      Is Ireland full (or getting full).

2.      Is immigration out of control.

3.      Are asylum seekers scammers?

4.      Are Ukrainian migrants favoured over the Irish?

5.      The benefits and costs of immigration in Ireland

6.      Immigration and crime – is there a link in Ireland?

7.      To Rwanda or Connacht?

8.      Sure it is only statistics?

9.      Are Ukrainian refugees paid too much?

10. The European Migration and Asylum Pact

11. Immigration – where do I stand?

Understanding migration

Migration is not an anomaly—it is part of the human story. Every Irish family has migrant roots. Migration brings change, sometimes resistance, and historically conquest. Today, however, most migration is driven by economic and social circumstances as well as the reality of war, famine and climate destruction rather than conquest.

The Celtic Tiger era marked a new phase in Irish history, with thousands arriving from Eastern Europe bringing with them skills and experiences. Migration both responded to and fuelled economic growth, enriching Ireland’s human capital and cultural diversity. While public service planning lagged behind, Ireland benefited overall.

Typically only an estimated 3-4% of people will ever permanently settle in another country  according to the Migration Policy Institute.  Asylum seekers make up a relatively small proportion of these and are mostly found not in Europe or other economically developed parts of the world but in poorer regions where refugees flee to neighbouring countries.

Ireland has traditionally been slow to engage in debates about immigration. Partly for good reasons, Governments, political parties and civil society did not want to give oxygen to extremist elements only too happy to jump on a bandwagon of general discontent about inequality, services and in particular the housing crisis.  For generations, Irish people were reluctant to express negative views, shaped by our own painful history of emigration. 

In the past few years, but especially since this day two years ago, all is changed; utterly changed.  A combination of factors including the initial refugee intake to Europe in 2015 which hardly impacted Ireland along with the arrival of Covid and then the illegal invasion of a sovereign European country by imperialist Russia has provided the context for the rise in far right politics in Ireland. More than that, the political ‘centre’ (right and some of the left) has shifted decidedly to the right on immigration.

The Social Media Battlefield

False claims about immigrants—especially asylum seekers—continue to circulate widely. Social media platforms such as TikTok and X bombard users with reels, clips, and posts that reinforce negative narratives. Attempting to post factual information or challenge the prevailing discourse often results in a flood of hostile, inflammatory comments.

Platforms have become toxic spaces. X, in particular, has been colonised by extremist voices, often amplified by bot accounts or anonymous profiles apparently originating outside Ireland. Many people, understandably, avoid engaging altogether. Yet the question remains: can we afford to let these forces dominate the conversation?

Algorithms amplify negativity, misinformation, and even outright hate. While some ignore this content, others absorb it. Conversations at kitchen tables, pubs, and workplaces increasingly echo the online narrative. Too often, silence prevails—people avoid speaking up for fear of offending family, neighbours, or colleagues.

On social media, certain “facts” are endlessly reposted, liked, and treated as self-evident. Concerns overwhelmingly focus on asylum seekers, who represent only a fraction of overall immigration. The distinction between legal immigration and so-called “illegal” immigration has been blurred. Ominously, a certain class of immigrants by virtue of their skin colour, gender, religion or geographic origin are deemed to be illegal or scammers.  Dehumanising language is used to describe a whole group of people and stereotypes are slapped on people.

Everyday Prejudices

The result is a steady stream of familiar refrains:

• “I’m not racist, but…”
• “This has gone too far.”
• “They moved in down the street, get welfare, have two cars, and are paid to holiday in Ukraine.”
• “This town has been destroyed by robberies and anti-social behaviour since they moved into the hotel.”
• “By 2041 Muslims will make up over 50% of schoolchildren, Christianity will be outlawed, and Sharia law will take over.”
• “It is all part of a plan by the EU, Soros, the UN and global elites”
• “The radical left lunatics whinge, but ordinary working-class people know the truth.”
• “I’m not against immigrants, but we should look after our own first.”

I have heard these lines—and worse—more in the past two years than in the previous seven decades of my life. They surface not only during election canvassing but also in casual, everyday conversations. Disturbingly, they are often delivered as if self-evident, beyond dispute, and universally accepted.  Again and again I find myself in conversations where people are astonished that I hold views and interpretations that are at variance with ‘common sense which ‘everyone believes and knows to be true except you’.

The misuse of the Irish national flag—once a symbol of peace, diversity, and unity—has become a tool of intimidation and division, echoing xenophobic initiatives in England.

Filling the Information Gap

Confronted with this rising tide of “lies, damned lies, and statistics,” to borrow Mark Twain’s phrase, I sought to fill a gap in Ireland’s information landscape. In the immediate aftermath of the riots, it seemed that the government under Taoiseach Leo Varadkar were about to launch a public campaign to counter myths about immigration. So they said.

Yet two years later, the opposite has occurred. Both the government and the main opposition party, Sinn Féin, have drifted into myth-making themselves. We are now served to a daily drip-drip of announcements, reviews and statements by Ministers all of which reinforces the widely held assumptions about immigrants in general and asylum seekers in particular.  The main opposition party along with a group of right-wing independents plus Aontú and Independent Ireland criticise the Government for not being harsh enough on asylum seekers and beneficiaries of temporary protection (Ukrainian refugees).  All of this is opportunistic dog-whistling. They argue that the ‘pull factors’ needs to be adjusted. It is a case of ‘flogging must continue until morale improves’.

Large civil society organisations like the trade unions and the Christian churches are largely silent or inactive. It is left to a band of smaller left-wing parties and a few Non-government organisations to articulate opposition to the drift of Government policy on this matter as well as the  destructive reframing of the migration debate around scarcity, illegality, danger and affordability. One very bright spot in recent happenings was the election of Catherine Connolly as our President. She did not flinch from stating her own moral stance on migration when put under pressure in the election campaign this Autumn. While the anti-immigrants rallied around a ‘spoil the vote’ campaign they were overwhelmingly rejected and Connolly got the highest percent vote in history.

A gradual political shift by the ‘centre’

The transition has been gradual. While the three main parties still claim to support immigration, their rhetoric has shifted. Calls for a “fair, efficient, and fast” deportation system have given way to warnings that immigration levels are “too high.” Sinn Féin now speaks of Ireland lacking the “capacity” to manage current numbers.

Public commentators have joined the chorus. Michael McDowell, architect of the 2004 citizenship referendum, economist David McWilliams, and social conservative David Quinn have all raised concerns about immigration. Among the more conservative and traditionalist wing of the Catholic Church there is a noticeable uptake in talk about migration.  Some of it is couched in the language of ‘Ireland is full’ while other parts of their narrative is couched in terms of defending Ireland and Europe from the invading Muslims.  This narrative is particularly strong in parts of central Europe such as Poland and Hungary and feeds into the religious right in Ireland. And, of course, new convert Vice President JD Vance and a significant cohort of ‘Maga’ Catholics in the USA are driving this cultural identity narrative. It bears an ugly resemblance with white supremacy and race replacement theory except that in the Irish case it is couched in very measured, comparatively moderate and reasonable sounding claims.  For these brethren the election of Pope Leo XIV is a huge disappointment.

This reflects the so-called Overton window: ideas once considered unacceptable in polite society are now mainstream.  The relatively small, fractious and noisy far right fringe is driving the narrative and the three main political parties on the centre right and centre left are feeling intense pressure to harden up their stance on immigration.   If anything, Sinn Féin is under even more pressure than Fianna Fáil or Fine Gael. With a significant voter base in working class and most rural areas, Sinn Féin is under pressure to head off competition from far right groups who have intentionally targeted Sinn Féin. While Sinn Féin is part of a broader left alliance that backed Catherine Connolly in the recent presidential election it is seeking to maintain and grow its popular support to a point where it could lead the next Government before the end of this decade.  It is wresting with the immigration issue which is now beginning to dominate air time.

In the background, intimidation and illegal attacks against international protection (IP) applicants and ethnically diverse communities have escalated. Rumours spread on unregulated social media have been enough to spark fires, protests, and blockades of planned accommodation centres.  Witness any incident now involving a high profile act of violence and social media is buzzing within minutes while Ireland breathes a sigh of relief when the authorities confirm the ethnicity of the alleged assailant as not being ‘one of them’.  Every now an again it is, of course, ‘one of them’ and all hell breaks out as has happened more than once since November 2023.

On the Doorstep

My own election canvassing experience across three elections since early 2024 confirms this shift. While most households did not raise immigration directly, those who did were often deeply concerned:

• “We don’t have the accommodation or services.”
• “There are lots of unvetted men hanging around the streets.”

This is despite Kilkenny having one of the lowest rates of international protection applicants in the country and of the 150 or so IP applicants living in the county over half of them are at work. What I can confirm from my own experience canvassing in counties Kilkenny and Carlow is that immigration did come up frequently along with the cost of living, housing and access to supports for children with special needs. Concerns about immigration were expressed across a wide range of areas but more so in deprived areas as well as areas where there were relatively few immigrants. It does seem to me that anti-immigrant or immigrant sceptical views predominate in more tightly knit communities adjacent to immigrants but not actually containing significant number immigrants. Fears and lack of familiarity or direct contact with immigrants was a feature of feedback in these areas in my view.

A curious finding for me was the way in which people expressed concerns about immigration but when questioned about people working in industry, services, hospitals they often said ‘I have nothing against them’. When I pointed out that asylum seekers made up around 10% of total annual inflow they seemed very surprised.

The October turning point

A very definite shift in tone and emphasis from Government occurred within hours of the results of the Presidential election last month in which a campaign led by various groups, including the far right, resulted in a significant number of deliberately spoiled votes.  On 29 October, Tánaiste and Fine Gael leader, Simon Harris declared:

“Our migration numbers are too high, and I think that is really an issue that needs to be considered in a very serious way by Government.”

Fianna Fáil frontbenchers cautiously echoed Harris, while Sinn Féin’s TD, Matt Carthy, went further on the Virgin Media Tonight show, claiming that Ireland lacks the capacity to accommodate immigrants—not just asylum seekers. He also suggested multinationals pressure the government to maintain high work permit numbers. Now, that goes way, way beyond anything Fianna Fáil, Fine Gael or Aontú have said to date.

Meanwhile, Aontú, a party somewhat sceptical about immigration, has hardened its stance further from a “deport them faster” to outright questioning of current immigration levels. While excoriated by the far right for not being nativist enough (they have also fallen under the ‘traitor’ allegation according to the fascist bots) Aontú tries to take credit for stirring up the debate even as far back as 2019 when it was founded. Typically, someone from Aunt says something critical about migration policy and the far right and the further right jumps on the bandwagon and fans the initial statement into something more spicey.

Right-wing Independent Ireland’s Ken O’Flynn TD recently chided the Social Democrats, suggesting they needed “a crash course in basic statistical theory” after Holly Cairns TD argued there was no link between immigration and crime. Ironically, statistical rigour has been largely absent from the debate, especially among right-wing independents.

Far from providing a stream of data on immigrant numbers, facts about asylum, the housing waiting list, eligibility for welfare the Government parties have gone roguish by trotting out claims that 80% of refugees are not genuine and that a similar proportion are entering through the North of Ireland. The latter claim is not backed up by any statistics while the former is downright wrong.  If the Government has hard data on numbers or estimates crossing the border with the North let them publish it and let the CSO verify it as national or even experimental statistics.  Otherwise stop feeding the misinformation beast.  A blog will look at these claims later.

Two years on since that fateful night in Dublin, the landscape of immigration debates in Ireland and beyond has changed dramatically. Several global figures and forces—what I call the TFM effect – Trump, Farage, Musk— have shaped the tone and direction of discourse.

These international Influences emanate especially from:

• The United States: Donald Trump’s election to the White House marked the beginning of a campaign of harassment and intimidation against black and brown immigrants. Notably, undocumented Irish immigrants were spared from this hostility at least so far.
• The United Kingdom: Nigel Farage and Reform, amplified by the Tory press and toxic social media, pushed immigration scepticism into the mainstream. Even Prime Minister Keir Starmer in his island of strangers speech reminiscent of Enoch Powell over half a century ago declared:

The damage [from high net migration] it has done to our country is incalculable

He was just talking about the asylum seekers, you know.

• Across Europe, far right parties from the AFD in Germany (they are under investigation for subversion and may become the next Government) to the National Rally in France are on the rise.  It is not inconceivable that Germany, France and the UK could join the other European countries with far right governments in the coming years. 

Where will that leave Ireland which shares a land border with the United Kingdom? Will it be Government policy, here, to level down to EU performative cruelty on asylum seekers or level down further to mooted UK levels of cruelty with ICE-like raids and third-party country deportations all of which has been well documented by Irish journalist Sally Hayden in her book, “My Fourth Time We Drowned”.

Opposition to immigrants goes hand in hand with a broader political agenda to reverse environmental policies, oppose ‘wokeism’ and in some cases where very right-wing parties have formed Governments curb free speech or interfere with the workings of the judiciary or the democratic process.

Other voices in the immigration debate

• Left-wing parties such as the Social Democrats, Labour, and People Before Profit have fought hard against rising hostility but remain limited by their small representation in the Oireachtas.
• The Greens, tasked with integration and migration affairs in government, were overwhelmed and under-resourced within cabinet.
• Public broadcasters RTE and TG4 have provided reasonably balanced coverage up to now, unlike the BBC in recent months which has given disproportionate attention to Reform.
• Civil society organisations – a number of non-government organisations (yes the dreaded ‘NGO’s have spoken up with integrity and compassion.  The trade unions have been relatively silent and inactive while the Catholic Church and other religious groups have spoken occasionally but without an adequate and sustained attempt to educate its members in the basics of  Christian discipleship and what this means for active citizenship. 

The Need for Facts and Context

What is urgently required is a foundation of facts, statistics, and research-based findings to illuminate the debate.

Reliable data from the Central Statistics Office (CSO) and the Economic and Social Research Institute (ESRI) are available but can be difficult to access, become quickly outdated as well as drowned out by misinformation.

Facts alone rarely persuade. Personal stories carry weight. I recall one that shaped my own life: immigrant staff in a hospital emergency department once saved me. That experience remains a powerful reminder of the human face of migration.

Conclusion

Facts and statistics must be given space in this noisy debate. In my next blog, I will review what we know about immigration numbers in Ireland – stocks and flow. Then, I will work through last year blog series to update information as best as possible. It is important to remember that every migrant is not just a statistic but a human being with their own story, experiences, fears and hopes. 

Two years on from that fateful night, Ireland’s immigration debate has shifted dramatically. What began as fringe rhetoric has entered the mainstream. Social media amplifies myths, political leaders echo them, and everyday conversations normalize them. We must stand up, speak up and act now.  Europe and the rest of the world is at risk of revisiting the 1930s except in a new and more awful way.