To Rwanda or Connacht?

 

Cromwell was not the last English ruler to offer a stark choice to its neighbours.  Recent weeks have seen a further ramping up of the rhetoric on immigration supplemented by loose playing with numbers on migration. ‘Facts’ that turn out to be other than robust statistics which can be stood over by the relevant public agencies have entered the discourse. Alarm and even panic have been spread by irresponsible commentators and fuelled by sensationalised opinion polling which has very limited value in my view.  What does count is election time and how those elected behave afterwards. 

In the most recent turn of events attention has been focussed away from the majority of immigrants to those who have arrived as refugees.  As discussed in earlier blogs on this site, asylum seekers account for little more than 10% of total annual inflow. Suddenly, we have been presented with a highly simplistic categorisation of ‘legal’ and ‘illegal’ immigrants as well as ‘genuine’ migrants and ‘non-genuine’ migrants (aka economic migrants who, allegedly, are using the asylum application track to access residency here). It is difficult to say who is an ‘illegal’ migrant.  What we do know is that persons applying  for asylum are legally entitled to do so.  How the state processes their claims and produces a final verdict after possible appeals is another matter.  This is a lengthy and complex business. There are no short cuts even if the process has been made quicker in very recent times. 

Let’s recap, briefly, on who is entitled, legally, to be living in Ireland.

• Any citizen of an EU Member State plus the European Economic Area (EEA) is entitled to live and work here provided that they meet certain criteria.
• Because of various bilateral agreements between Ireland and the UK, Irish and British citizens have a right to live and work in these islands. An upshot of this is the Common Travel Area (CTA) which is unique to any EU Member State.
• Other citizens may stay longer than 3 months if they have a Residence permit. This may be linked to employment or study.  Some may require a Visa if travelling for here for less than 3 months.
• Family members of another person who may be a spouse, partner or dependent child of an EEA citizen or someone granted permission to join another legally resident person once certain criteria are met.
• Persons arriving from the Ukraine under the Beneficiaries of Temporary Protection (BOTP) since March 2022 are entitled to live here until at least March of next year.
• Persons arriving in Ireland and who seek international protection under the UN Convention relating to the status of refugees are entitled to stay here as long as their application for asylum is being processed.
• Migrants availing of the Regularisation of Long-term Undocumented Migrant Scheme operated in 2022 allowing undocumented migrants to achieve residency under certain conditions.

Applicants for international protection (also known as asylum seekers) are subject to a stringent application process in which persons seeking asylum are finger-printed and photographed. All data are entered on to a European database known as Eurodac to which Europol and national law enforcement authorities of EU Member States have access under strict conditions to ‘prevent, detect and investigate terrorist and other serious criminal offences’ (see Eurodac).  Under Irish law a person can be excluded from refugee status if they have committed a serious crime.

The process of application is rigorous and typically long especially in case of applicants from countries not deemed to be safe.

So, what is an ‘illegal’ immigrant?  It refers to someone who does not fit any of the above.  This could include persons arriving under a temporary visa or residence permit which has expired and stays here. It could include persons applying for asylum following receipt of temporary residence due to a change in personal or home country circumstances.  It could also include persons who have received a negative asylum application and a deportation order who have not left Ireland.  It seems that, at least up to now, most deportation orders were assumed to be linked with voluntary departures. There is no way, on the basis of current information, to ascertain how many have voluntarily left and how many have stayed although, as shown below, we do have some data published by Eurostat in respect of Ireland.  The act of deportation is costly and involves the use of Garda resources and time as well as other personnel and resources.

We do need to be careful about language.  An undocumented migrant is not a criminal.  Their situation is irregular. To classify a whole group of persons as 'illegal' - especially in the current European and Irish political environments may be dehumanising.  We ought not to bracket irregular or undocumented migrants as belonging to the same group as criminals.  The term 'illegal' migrants seems to have taken off in the USA many years ago. Ironically, our politicians made special pleas for 'undocumented' Irish migrants in the USA every St Patrick's Day.  We never refer to 'undocumented' Irish as 'illegal' even if in a narrowly technical sense they are.

There has been a huge focus in recent months on the inflow of asylum seekers and the associated issue of accommodation.  This focus has been redoubled as the crisis in male asylum seeker accommodation gathered pace during the winter months.  The diplomatic exchange between the Irish and British governments over the legal situation on refugee flows between the UK and Ireland (that is, the Republic of Ireland) has shown up at least two things:

1. We have very limited and timely information on where exactly asylum seekers last came from before entering the State.
2. Certain politicians and social media commentators are more than happy to avail of this uncertainty to score political points in a debate about human beings who are desperate enough to cross sea and land in search of safety and survival.

Were it true that the bulk of very recent arrivals (which includes women and children as well as couples) have come into the State directly from Northern Ireland then we are looking at an entirely new situation and one that no politician or public authority can easily regulate.  I can vouch from personal experience of cross border travel on this island when working and living in the North during the late-1980s that not even the formidable presence of British Military surveillance on hilltops in county Armagh could deter or completely monitor cross-border flows especially on ‘unapproved’ roads that were not cratered as many were in that section of the border. 

While I am not a fan of opinion polls which are of dubious statistical value and can be played by online actors, I was struck by a recent poll that suggested a significant percentage of the population in the South willing to endorse cross-border checks to do something about the arrival of international refugees. My assumption is that practically everyone wants an open border between North and South. In the absence of a passport or an ID how can a law enforcement agent operating on the southern side of the Irish border tell if someone is travelling to milk cows on the other side or availing of cheaper petrol in Lifford or coming from Afghanistan to find an abode in Dublin?   Let’s be honest, we are talking about racial profiling and nothing else. 

Were asylum seekers to be returned to the UK under emergency legislation how would this be done?  The UK Government has insisted that they will not do business on this issue with the Irish Government.   The United Kingdom left the European Union because of immigration (the final Brexit result was extremely narrow  and without any doubt immigration more than made the difference).  The aim was to ‘take back control’ of borders.  More recently, the UK has seen the highest inflows of migrants ever. So much for taking back control.

All of this shows how disconnected and inhumane the discussion on immigration has become in very recent times and how fear, ignorance and prejudice have taken hold at many layers of social opinion. A few have even suggested a passport/ID check on travel between Great Britain and Ireland with ID checks in Larne and Belfast. Presumably this would apply on all travellers and if it did not it would have to involve some element of racial profiling. Others have suggested a universal ID card for use, uniquely, between the UK and Ireland.  Good luck with that.

Monitoring people flow at sea ports between Britain and Northern Ireland is not in the same league as trade.  A type new border between the two islands would spell the end of the Common Travel Area and a very significant administrative and political step in dismantling the United Kingdom (which may happen eventually by consent and within the letter and spirit of the Belfast Agreement but surely not in response to short-term party political problems in Dublin and in Westminster).

The argument about asylum seeker flows has turned more and more away from border checks to the issue of enforcement once a person has been issued a deportation order following an application and unsuccessful appeal.  The notion of deportation has not sat easily with Irish people in the recent past. The Troika visitors in 2010-2014 were not impressed that Irish banks and law enforcement agencies could not evict more people from their homes on foot of persistent and unresolved mortgage defaults. Irish people tend to be uncomfortable about evictions, deportations and similar actions. It goes back a long way and is engraved on our psyche.  People may make a big fuss about unfulfilled deportation orders and statistics on implementation but when it comes to real individuals and families that we might possible see, hear, listen to and share our lives with my guess is that it could be a different story. Almost 20 years ago I had the occasion to share in a prayer group with sisters and brothers from various parts of the globe. I was shocked and saddened when someone I had casually known suddenly disappeared. I did not know the full story or circumstances but I could not avoid a natural human reaction.

I like to think that everyone has a heart. It is just that we have been hardened by a limited perspective and I am afraid in some cases poisoned ideologies and misinformation.

Is it true that Ireland is soft on immigrant refugees and does not deport enough of 'them' and quickly enough? Lets look at the data on deportations and officially reported ‘illegals’ from Eurostat the European statistical agency, and put this in a comparative perspective.

Figure 27 shows that there has been upward trend in the number of ‘third country’ or non-EU citizens refused entry to Ireland. Just over 7,400 were refused entry, here, in 2023.  The reasons for refusal vary but the data reported by Eurostat for Ireland show that the bulk of refusals are related to lack of valid documentation or residence permits. Even if the data provide only a partial picture of what is going on they demonstrate the falsity of claims of ‘open borders’ by certain commentators and politicians. Figure 28 shows the rate of deportation orders across the EU. This is measured by the number of orders to leave issued per 1,000 of population. I have averaged the figures over a ten-year period to allow for data variation from year to year. Clearly, as reported by Eurostat, the rate of deportation orders issued per 1,000 of population is lower in Ireland than in other EU States. Just over 1,000 orders were issued last year in Ireland.  The rate per 1,000 of population for Ireland over a ten year period is 0.22 – the second lowest of any EU State (use your mouse to hover over each county on the map in Figure 28). 

Next, I turn to the numbers of persons actually returned as a result of a deportation order made (Figure 29). This includes numbers voluntarily repatriated as well as enforced removals.  There were 290 persons returned in 2023 for Ireland.  According to the Eurostat figures 140 of these were voluntarily removed with assistance; 55 were forcibly removed while 95 were voluntary removals without assistance.  A technical note is provided by Eurostat stating that 'Voluntary Return refers to the situation in which the third-country national complies voluntarily with the obligation to return (i.e. no enforcement procedure had to be launched) and this departure is confirmed by the information from eg. the border authority or the consulate authorities in the country of origin or other authorities such as IOM or any other organisations implementing a program to assist migrants to return to a third-country'.

Again, Ireland emerges as have comparatively low rates of enforced or voluntary departures on foot of an order to leave. Only Italy and Portugal have lower removal rates using the 10-year average.  Figure 30 shows a breakdown by type of removal.  The rate of enforced removal is significantly lower in most other EU States.  Given that these States have higher rates of deportation it would appear that the option of assisted voluntary deportation is much lower in Ireland than elsewhere. However, it should be noted that there are many more leaving on foot of a deportation order but are not picked up in the official numbers reported here.

Finally, I turn to the numbers of 'illegal' migrants as reported by EUROSTAT.  The exact definition used by EUROSTAT is as follows: 

Third country nationals who are detected by Member States' authorities and have been determined to be illegally present under national laws relating to immigration (see Art. 2.1 (r) and 5.1(b) of the Council Regulation (EC) no 862/2007). This category relates to persons who have been found to have entered illegally (for example by avoiding immigration controls or by employing a fraudulent document) and those who may have entered legitimately but have subsequently remained on an illegal basis (for example by overstaying their permission to remain or by taking unauthorised employment).

The rate of 'illegals' per 1,000 of population over a ten-year period is relatively low in Ireland. This may reflect a lower rate of pro-active administrative pursuit of persons deemed to be 'illegal'. Or, it may reflect poor data recording and reporting.  The figure reported for Ireland was 1,485 in 2023. For the EU as a whole the reported figure was almost 1.27 million last year.

1. Can any conclusions be drawn from these data? A number of observations can be suggested:
2. Information is patchy and there is a need for more oversight and insight.  It is not clear exactly which Irish agency furnishes the data to EUROSTAT and how these data are signed off by the relevant statistical authorities. Though administrative data contain lots of information this seems to be not in a form that can be used for detailed aggregate statistical reporting.
3. Practice in relation to border controls, deportations and enforcements varies hugely across EU Member States.
4. On the face of it, Ireland seems to be less diligent in issuing and enforcing deportations of persons deemed to be 'illegal'.

The above fact, if it is the case, might act as a pull factor for some especially those seeking to avoid the UK or continental European countries that have a tradition of portable citizen IDs. However, no definitive conclusions can be drawn and periodic research by the ESRI at least up to 2022 has not concluded that perceptions of deportation risk as a major factor here (see Explaining Recent Trends in International Protection Applications).
 

Those chanting ‘out, out, out’ on the streets and in certain towns and villages may seem hard of heart but if they really knew the people inside those tents or buildings might they take a different tone? They are only echoing the more nuanced cliches of certain politicians in the Oireachtas. Rather than a ‘them and us’, zero-sum narrative, we can and should create a ‘both and’ narrative that makes the best use of all our people and talent to provide for human need regardless of creed or colour. The scarcity narrative is a contrived one based on nationalist ideology and not on the evidence that I have so far considered in this blog series. Next week, I turn my attention to the EU Migration and Asylum Pact which promises to be a game changer for asylum related migration across the Union.