Are Ukrainian refugees paid too much?

 

The answer to this question is, clearly, yes for the Irish Government which recently decided to cut allowances for many Ukrainian refugees (known as Beneficiaries of Temporary Protection).  Three arguments were cited:

• It would be unfair for some Ukrainian refugees to get more than other Ukrainian refugees who have arrived since mid-March of which there are an estimated 1,000 or so.
• Ireland’s social welfare and general financial payment was too generous for Ukrainian refugees compared to other EU Member States and this explains why so many came to Ireland over the last two years.
• It was financially and politically unsustainable.

I will address these points, below. First, let’s set the political context as well as the facts about what seems to be happening (I say seems because a recent announcement about changes to payments for some Ukrainians is shockingly sparse and vague on so many points).

Political context

The sudden and sharp change in tone by Government on immigration has taken many by surprise.  When set against the context of the pending elections as well as the gathering storm about immigration it is hardly surprising that the Irish Government has started to catch up on a small number of members of the Oireachtas who led the way in terms of general migrant sceptism and particular scepticism in relation to refugees and asylum seekers.

Previous blogs have drawn out the distinction between different groups of immigrants.  There has been an extraordinary focus in recent months on a minority of immigrants – specifically people seeking international protection.  These include persons fleeing from Syria, Afghanistan and Palestine.  With ‘concerned citizens’ linking these with problems of local public services and housing, community tensions were fomented. Ukrainian refugees were in the general mix of suspicion and resentment at least on the part of a sizeable minority of people in particular urban and rural communities.

What has changed recently on payments to Ukrainians?

For new arrivals since 14^th March 2024, Ukrainian refugees are entitled to:

a maximum weekly expense allowance for an adult of €38.80 per adult and €29.80 per child for families with children.  A monthly child benefit payment is still payable for qualifying children.  

Accommodation is time limited to one of five specially designated accommodation centres after which they must find their own accommodation.  New arrivals who source their own accommodation may apply for social welfare on the same basis as Irish citizens as long as they meet the eligibility conditions. It is too early to say how the new arrivals will fare vis-à-vis accommodation since the 90-day period runs to the middle of June.

The ink was not dry on these new measures announced in January and implemented from 14^th March when the Government announced a new set of measures for all refugees including those resident here since March 2022.

The change will see all serviced accommodation becoming ‘designated accommodation centres’ where residents will lose access to social welfare to be replaced with a daily allowance of €38.80 per week for an adult and €29.80 for a child – the same as for new arrivals since March.  This is estimated by the Ukraine Civil Society Forum to impact on about 35,000 adults and children.  There is no impact from these latest measures for persons who are working or if they are hosted by individuals or families in pledged accommodation.

Some details of the new arrangements remain to be clarified. The new measures were leaked over a weekend and quickly decided at cabinet last week and not subject to Oireachtas scrutiny other than a short exchange of views on the day the announcement was made. In a statement issued by the Government on Tuesday 14^th May (see link here), the matter of a change in payments to some Ukrainian refugees was captured in a single sentence as follows:

It has agreed beneficiaries of Temporary Protection in state-provided serviced accommodation should receive the same level of payment regardless of when they arrived.

And that is it.  The statement went on to address other issues. Significantly, the statement began with the following sentence:

The Government has agreed a number of measures to respond to the growing number of people seeking protection in Ireland.

It sound like a deterrence measure given ‘the growing number of people seeking protection in Ireland’.  

Major questions now arise for many women, children and vulnerable persons

For now, there has been no mention of a change in accommodation arrangements for pre-14 March refugees.  However, the logic of ‘two Ukrainian children’ in the same class, to quote the Taoiseach, getting different treatment might lead one to conclude that pre-14 March children should be treated equally with more recent arrivals by depriving them of accommodation? For one thing, the number of children arriving since mid-March and entering school is likely to be negligible.  Time will tell. For now, matters are very muddled as many questions remain especially about

·        Persons with disabilities who may not be able to work.

·        Adults over 65 years of age of whom there are an estimated 7-8,000 (see Table 4 of the CSO report here).

·        Mothers of children who may not be able to work full-time or even part-time due to lack of childcare, remoteness of where they live or lack of job opportunities and lack of proficiency in English as well as other factors.

There is nothing in the Government statement to suggest that families and individuals will not continue to pay €70 per week per adult for food and €35 per week per child (contrary to the claims by some in recent days that Ukrainians get ‘free food’).  If the Government does provide some relief in these weekly contributions then it will have to foot the difference in the bill to providers.

Come the elections

None of this entails afflicting the relatively comfortable property owners who have profited hugely from the accommodation arrangements but, rather, afflicting the already afflicted.

There has been no information given who exactly will be impacted. Without explanation and without any breakdown the Government has claimed in follow-up briefings and statements that an estimated 27,500 adult persons will be impacted. The Ukraine Civil Society Forum estimates that as of May this year there are 47,800 in state contracted accommodation. In all, about 18,000 are in employment but we do not know how many of these are in serviced accommodation.

It would take a considerable act of credulity to claim that the timing of this announcement had nothing whatsoever to with the forthcoming local and European elections. Two of the Government parties and the main opposition party are under huge pressure from elements of their support base to toughen their stance on immigration in general and on asylum seekers and Ukrainian refugees in particular.  The radical and far right may not do as well as feared in next month’s elections but there can be doubt that the Government is rapidly adapting its messaging and actions in response to the threat from the right flank.  Moreover, the crisis in accommodation for IP applicants is worsening as threats and protests arise in almost every single location where an attempt has been made to provide temporary accommodation. This factor, alone, accounts for over 1,900 IP applicants not being accommodated with several hundred sleeping rough.  The extreme right may be tiny in electoral support but they seem to exert disproportionate influence on Government thinking and time. As for the platform X and ‘discussion’ of all things migration, it seems to have been largely colonised by an unholy alliance of bots, racists and opportunists.

Social Impacts of new measures

The United Nations High Commissioner for Refugees (UNHCR) has expressed concern at the scale of the reductions and has said “a thorough review of their impact” should be carried out before the changes take effect.  In a statement issued by the Ukraine Civil Society Forum – an umbrella organisation connecting 106 community and voluntary organisations in Ireland – point out the following:

The lack of information on how this policy change will be implemented makes our jobs immeasurably more difficult and creates a vacuum that misinformation will thrive and anxiety and stress within this community will be greater.

These new measures are likely to add greatly to the uncertainty, stress and lack of means of older persons, mothers of children and other persons who have already experienced enough trauma and upset as a result of fleeing their own country.

Ireland an outlier?

The claim that Ireland’s offer was significantly out of line with that of other EU Member States has not been substantiated.  As I have already pointed out in a previous blog here, the comparisons of cash payments do not take into account marked differences in the ‘social wage’ incorporating childcare, out-of-pocket expenses and transport. 

It is important to remember that Ireland adopts a particular mixed, neo-liberal social model based on relatively high cash payments and gross wages (at least compared to many Eastern European countries) at the cost of higher charges and poorer social infrastructure. Some of the voices raised about the claimed higher offer for Ukrainian refugees, here, are the same as those who endorsed social welfare cuts during the banking-fiscal crisis in 2009-2013.

We should be mindful where supposed concern about EU comparisons leads us. First they came for the refugees. And then….

 A study of social welfare payments undertaken by Oireachtas Library and Research, last year, examined European data and information relating to Ukrainian refugees.  A vital 'health warning' contained in the document was never once mentioned in the Dáil and Seanad debates earlier this year on the legislation to level down Ukrainian refugees towards International Protection (IP) seekers.  See Comparative Social Welfare Rates across the EU in the context of Temporary Protection (October 2023). Here is what the Oireachtas research report said:

At the outset, it should be noted that the data presented in this paper comes with a significant ‘health warning’. The data on social welfare rates, specifically basic unemployment payment rates, is not strictly comparable and is not a case of comparing ‘life with life’. The rationale for this is set out further in the paper but overall the public administration legacy, social policy trajectory, level of coverage, legislative framework, per capita income, currency, tax/welfare indexation and thereafter levels of public expenditure differ in each of the EU or Euro areas States assessed. Linked to this, the rates cited below do not take account of ‘out-of-pocket’ payments across States where in some States allied social and public services may be fully or partially funded by the State, while in other jurisdictions citizens are required to pay for such services either fully or in part ‘out of pocket’. For this reason, the data cannot be seen as comparable. Where any comparisons are made, they should be accompanied by the above caution. [my emphasis]

This is exactly what Government and many opposition spokespersons did not do.

Just to take once example – Denmark – where the perception is that the social democratic government has taken an increasingly tough stance on Ukrainian refugees, a mother or father with a child who is not entitled to additional child benefit gets €1,229 while an adult without children gets €878 and adults under the age of 30 living with their parents receive €378.31. For details on the ‘social wage’ offer for Ukrainian refugees see here.

Was the offer to Ukrainian refugees sustainable economically and socially?

Clearly, temporary accommodation in hotels and emergency settings is not acceptable in the medium-term. However, a dysfunctional housing market in Ireland has made it extremely difficult for refugees including IP applicants to transition to anything that looks like a durable accommodation arrangement. 

The financial cost of support for Ukrainian refugees to the exchequer is significant. According to a report in the Irish Times last October the total had gone from €1 billion in 2022 to roughly €2 billion last year.  This scale of outlay needs to be seen in the context of a number of other considerations including the payback in employment and taxes among those employed here as well as the fact that Ireland’s contribution to Ukraine is non-military.  That said, a temporary arrangement which has a significant upfront cost needs to be offset by long-term plans and measures to integrate, where feasible, and to capitalise on the skills and contribution of these new arrivals.  The recent measures announced appear to be in the league of short-term political gestures rather than a well thought out strategy to deal with the large shock of a continuing war in Europe.

Politically sustainable?

One final comment is in order about an interesting opinion poll by Red C and commissioned by the Ukraine Civil Society Forum in Ireland. I am no fan of many attitudinal surveys especially those based on online, non-random forms.  However, Red C do operate some statistical control measures to ensure a reasonably representative sample. The recent survey showed:

• The majority of Irish people are supportive of migration and 76% feel the Gardai need to be tougher on recent arson attacks and intimidation at refugee centres.
• A majority of Irish people polled welcome those fleeing war and famine, support the provision of specific accommodation for refugees in the community, and take the pressure off housing.
• The poll also shows that a majority support efforts to integrate communities and refugees. 72% believe that intensive English classes should be provided to help refugees integrate and find work faster, according to the Red C poll.
• Views are fairly consistent between urban and rural, and across the provinces.

 In conclusion

These findings suggest that the broad population, here, is supportive of refugees when seen in the context of provision and investment.  Much depends on how we plan and invest in the  future to support local communities and vulnerable groups coming here.

Next two weeks

Next week, I will examine the many-sided European Migration and Asylum Pact agreed by Member States and due to come before the Oireachtas soon. After that, I will outline my own ideas on what a compassionate and common sense approach to immigration - especially that of asylum seekers - might look like in Europe and in Ireland. Finally, I will tackle the vexed question of the Far Right and their potential for influencing the migration debate here. There is a lot of ground to cover over the next two weeks.

As I keep saying through all the statistics and political analysis - we are talking about real people who have made extraordinary journeys.

Al Jazeera (July 2015)