Are asylum seekers scammers?

A frequent trope by the Far Right is that asylum seekers are really not here because of who they say they are. Rather, they are here because of economic reasons including Ireland's offer of housing, welfare and other services.  Words such as 'illegal', 'economic' and 'undocumented' are very often conflated.  As outlined in my last weekly blog, asylum seekers are here under international and domestic law which affords such people (they are people) the right to seek refuge in this country pending an assessment of their case. Until that case is concluded with a positive or negative outcome they are neither illegal or undocumented.  It is as simple as that. 

Answering the claim about their true motives for seeking entry to Ireland (economic/non-economic) is more difficult. Clearly, economic factors are relevant to any decision to cross continents, seas and land. However, personal safety is surely a major factor. Separating out the various factors in each individual case is not always straightforward. That is why in common with many other EU Member States we have an asylum process.

Before I address, below, the empirical evidence about claims that asylum seekers are, effectively, economic migrants and therefore not genuine as in fleeing war or persecution I take a short digression into a fast-developing political debate since the awful events of 23rd November in Dublin city centre.

The political context

A few weeks ago, the Government was signalling that it might be gearing up for a fight in defence of the values of this Republic against the myths and the untruths uttered by far right or not-so-far right politicians.  There were high hopes that Government might get to grips with the misinformation as well as the growing number of arson attacks and online and offline hate against politicians and anyone else expressing support for migrants and local communities.  The ground has shifted very rapidly. An empty chamber on the Government side during the debate on the 6th December last year on the private motion of the Rural Independent Group in the Dáil indicated that trouble was brewing.  Ireland was still in the initial shock waves following the riot of 23rd November.  The motion was not voted on as there were insufficient numbers in the chamber after a two hour acrimonious 'debate'. Next up was a media leak that the Government was to radically change the conditions for new arrivals from the Ukraine. This matter was voted on in the Dáil on the 31st of January this year with very little debate. Just 15 TDs voting against it and only one spoke on the matter in opposition to the moves.

A number of significant shifts have occurred alongside what can only be described as a clear change in tone and emphasis by the Government especially from February onwards.  No longer is the emphasis on countering the far and not-so-far right claims but in letting it be known that Government will crack down on 'illegal' or 'non-genuine' migrants.  Indications have been given that Ireland may not opt into the new Migrant and Asylum Pact adopted by the EU in December last. Rather than take a share of the total of asylum seekers entering  the EU in line with the size of our population and GDP, it is likely that Ireland will opt to pay sums of money to a central migrant fund at EU level.  

The context for all of this has been set by a growing unease politically about migration and about two sub-groups of migrants in particular: Ukrainian refugees and International Protection (IP) applicants.  Government backbenchers and local representatives are under mounting pressure as town after town objects to accommodation for persons in these categories. Ireland is, indeed, not full as I have argued two weeks ago on this site but it does look as if it is not as open and welcoming as it was.  

There are strong indications that Government has eased back from private accommodation as a strategy to saying that it will build and deliver special centres at some point in the future.  We might be waiting for that. Of course this been stated policy for some time.  Recent local protests seem to have stalled many plans to use vacant property. to be fair, the huge and unexpected surge in demand for accommodation in 2022 arising from the war in the Ukraine has placed massive strains on an already creaking system 

In the meantime, another strong indication of  a change in mood, is  the termination of accommodation for male IP arrivals since December. Predictably, the situation is now at the level of a humanitarian catastrophe within 5 minutes walk of the Oireachtas.  

Finally, the approaching local and European elections set an important context for nervousness on the part of Government parties as well as some opposition parties and individual TDs and councillors. While a surge to the far right may not emerge as feared by some (it may), there is little doubt that events on the ground are pushing some senior Government ministers to take what seems like a harder line on migration. One way or another, immigration is going to be a key issue in the next few weeks in a way that it has never been before in this country. All concerned may have their answers and hopefully a few solutions ready.  

One of the curious aspects of the very recent debacle on migration is the relative silence of most church leaders (with some honourable exceptions). Some of those who have spoken have seemed reluctant to name and nail it.  Likewise, we do not see much evidence of 'on-street' protests by trade unions even if the ICTU has given a good lead in supporting important protests against racism and far-right politics.  It is as if many are  watching what everyone else is saying or not saying before saying something..  Meanwhile, the tiny far right working through manifold accounts seem to have colonised much of social media with their hateful, spiteful and menacing approach. Is it possible that ordinary decent people have been bullied off social media or even away from political action and engagement? 

The fact that there have been no arson attacks on vacant property in recent weeks might suggest that authorities have stepped back from some of their plans. The decision by someone, on the ever of St Patrick's Day, to dump city centre refugees at the site of a former nursing home that had been attacked by arsonists is ironic. The protests have worked?  Nobody, to my knowledge,  prosecutions for arson attacks have been minimal in recent times.

The empirical evidence about asylum seekers in Ireland

The International Protection system is a complex and evolving one.  Asylum seeking is not new to Ireland as the data from the early 2000s show.  Moreover, asylum seeking was a factor in the decision to pursue a successful amendment to the constitution in 2004 concerning the citizenship rights of persons born in Ireland. As already outline in my most recent blog of 13 March 2024, IP applicants (asylum seekers) are afforded certain rights under domestic and international law.  Applicants cannot work for the first five months during which their application is assessed and decided on. An initial decision may take much longer than five months.  Accommodation and a basic allowance of €38.80 a week is given to applicants except that single males receive an allowance of  €113.80 if they have no accommodation.

A striking feature of EU data on first-time applications for international protection is the variation  in rates of application across Member States as well as across years over a 10-year period. Taking a ten-year average from 2014-2023, Figure 10 shows huge variation in rates of first-time application with Sweden, at 35.7 per 1,000 of population, far above other States including Ireland which showed an average annual rate of 1.0 per 1,000.  You read this right: there was one asylum seeker per year  per 1,000 of population in the last ten years.  In 2015, alone, Germany, Hungary and Sweden took very large numbers of refugees from Syria. In 2015, total asylum seeker arrivals peaked at around 1.2 million across the EU27 (excluding the UK) and fell back in subsequent years. The total for last year is estimated at 1.049m for the EU27.

Figure 11, below, shows rates of first-time application across EU States for 2023.  Ahead of Ireland are Cyprus, Austria, Greece, Luxembourg, Germany, Bulgaria, Slovenia, Spain and Estonia.  Slovakia and Hungary had very few applicants in 2023.  Two points emerge: Ireland moved from having a lower rate of asylum seekers over a ten-year period to having close to or slightly more than the EU average in 2023.  In 2023, the rate in Ireland was 2.5 compared to what I estimate as a rate of 2.3 for the EU27.

Next, I turn to data on decisions taken on foot of asylum applications.  The process is, typically, a lengthy one and may have involved appeals before a final decision is made.

 Figure 12 shows trends in the total number of first-instance applications and decisions in Ireland.  Clearly, there was a significant increase in applications from around  2017 onwards with a temporary disruption in 2020-2021 due to the Covid pandemic.  While the annual total for decisions tracked applications fairly closely up to 2016 there has been a sharp divergence since then as the overall number of applicants increased sharply in 2022-23. The proportion of first decisions that were positive has been over 80% in the last two years.

Figure 13 shows a time series for Ireland with data on first-time applications, first-instance decisions and a breakdown of the latter by outcome - refugee status granted on (i) (Geneva Convention), (ii) humanitarian grounds (under section 49(7) of the International Protection Act, 2015) and (iii) subsidiary protection (it was deemed not safe to return to the home country).  In the absence of further information it is difficult to ascertain the comparability of data over time in the case of Ireland. However, there is a sharp break in trends around mid-decade from 2015 with a much higher positive acceptance rate on first applications from then on.  It is very likely that some applications made prior to 2016 were subsequently given positive decisions in later years.  There was a noticeable increase in humanitarian status outcomes in 2021-22 but the numbers fell back in 2023.

Figure 15 maps the positive rate of first instance decision rates across EU Member States over a ten-year period.  Rates vary sharply across Member States. Over 10 years, Ireland at a 68% positive rate is the second highest in the EU27 (excluding UK).  Looking at 2023, only, the rate was 83% in Ireland. Again, this was the second highest in the EU27 (Estonia was the highest both in 2023 and in the 10-year period from 2014-23). 

Figure 16 maps the rate of positive final decisions across the EU27 over a 10-year period.  Ireland emerges as having the fourth highest positive acceptance rate out of the EU27. 

Final decisions are made after initial rejections or withdrawals of positive decisions take place. Final decisions data do not include first decisions that were not appealed or withdrawn. It is clear that most asylum seekers obtain a positive decision in Ireland - eventually.  In 2022 the last year for which Eurostat data on final IP decisions were available in the case of Ireland, the total of final decisions was 2,300.  Of these 59% were positive.  In total, 37% of final decisions were on humanitarian grounds.  This compares with a positive final rate of 33% on average for the EU27 in 2022.

On the face of it, it looks as if different EU States adopt very different policies both in regards to IP applicants seeking refuge as well as the decisions made on first and final stages of the application process. It would appear that considerable discretion is present across States as well as over time given shifting patterns in the rate and composition of IP applications and decisions. It is not surprising that the European Union Member States have agreed to adopt a more coordinated approach through the EU Pact on Asylum and Migration in December 2023. The Law still needs to be adopted by European Council and Parliament.

Is Ireland in some sense more lenient than other EU States?  It is hard to conclude from these data. However, some research by the Economic and Social Research Institute published in 2022 is relevant. In Explaining recent trends in international protection applications in Ireland, ESRI researchers found that the after-effects of Covid and suppressed migration was a leading factor at least in the first half of 2022.  Of major importance to asylum seekers was conditions in the countries of origin and first asylum. They also found that network effects as well as conditions in, and perceptions of, Ireland were highly relevant.  The pursuit of a hostile environment for asylum seekers in the UK in recent years is also relevant although the UK government has had limited success as judged the latest Office of National Statistics data for for the UK which show that over 1.2 million arrived into the UK offset by only half a million emigrants.  The plan to deport asylum seekers to Rwanda became mired in a political and legal quagmire. So much for controlling their borders. As it happens, the Republic of Ireland is the only country that shares a land border with the UK - a place that was notoriously difficult to control during the conflict of 1969-1998.  Controlling the flow of persons across the Irish sea via Northern Ireland is even more politically fraught as the debacle over Brexit protocols on goods for Northern Ireland have shown.

Before concluding I would like to show some statistics from the latest IPAS website concerning IP persons accommodated in various centres and emergency accommodation.  The total accommodated in the week ending 10 March was 28,019 - up by 1,740 since the beginning of the year.  Currently weekly arrivals are trending towards almost 500 per week.  

The distribution of IPAS accommodated persons is uneven with disproportionately some counties recording relatively high rates per 1,000 of population (notably Donegal, Mayo, Westmeath, Monaghan and Wicklow).  Counties with relatively low rates include Kilkenny, Cavan and Limerick. However, all counties record low overall levels. Even Donegal has only one IP accommodated per 100 of population.

Conclusions

A number of tentative conclusions arise:

Ireland is no different to other EU States in the extent to which wars and global inequality has placed considerable pressures on Member States

Member States differ sharply in relation to how they have handled inward migration of asylum seekers with Ireland probably towards the more benign end of the spectrum. That said, conditions facing arrivals here especially single men are nothing short of appalling and inconsistent with human dignity and rights

As said before, asylum seeking accounts for a relatively small proportion of inward migration.  Given the vulnerability of IP applicants and their provenance (mainly African and to a lesser extent near Eastern Asia) these attract disproportionate publicity especially on certain social media platforms

There is no evidence that IP applicants plan to come to Ireland to scam the system by getting around rules to take jobs or live off welfare.  They are ordinary people like you and me who are desperate and typically fleeing the most terrible of human circumstances.

Perhaps more humanity and a more careful consideration of the evidence would help before far and not-so-far right politicians and commentators rush to the podium of social media.

Next week I will look at the evolving situation for recent Ukrainian migrants. It looks as if many of them may be about to join the queues for accommodation as asylum seekers/IP applicants this June when the 90 days limit expires courtesy of the Government and the main opposition party and a few independents.

If you can have a look at The Old Oak film by Ken Loach. He says that it is his last film. I doubt it and I hope not.