Is immigration 'out of control'?
pic: San Diego Union Tribune https://bit.ly/3Vgonwv
You may wish to skip directly to the statistics below. However, a brief review of the legal context is important to challenge the claim that Ireland is operating an ‘open borders’ policy.
A personal experience
When I was a young unvetted male of military age travelling to London as a student in the 1970s I was struck by at least two things: (1) there were lots of black people in London – something you would rarely see back in Dublin and (2) most people seemed better dressed than the norm back home. I was also very much aware of being ‘different’ – a ‘Paddy’ seen as coming from a backward, half-rural and economically depressed region of the old Empire. Although most English people were far too polite to say it, I had a feeling that not a few regarded the paddies as not just thick but potentially very violent too.
That Ireland would be on the receiving end of ‘uncontrolled immigration’ seemed utterly unthinkable to me at the time. Very few people of other nationalities came to live or work here except for special reasons. Aside from the weather, Ireland was not exactly a choice destination for Italian, Portuguese, Yugoslav and Turkish emigrants that helped rebuild Germany in the 1950s. It would be accurate to say that Ireland experiences waves of ‘uncontrolled emigration’ in a cyclical fashion in lock step with the fortunes of building or other industries here.
Emigration was described, also, as the escape valve from a somewhat depressed or repressive environment. Most had little choice in the matter including those graduating as architects, engineers, doctors and priests who could not get into full seminaries for the home front not to mention the huge numbers of women workers, ‘navvies’ and other workers some of whom built the motorways and high-rise flats in post-War Britain. Oddly, it could be said that Ireland was ‘full’ during times of uncontrolled emigration. Later, in the 1980s, many young Irish graduates and school leavers sneaked into the USA as illegal or undocumented migrants. It is an annual ritual for Irish politicians and officials to seek clemency and waivers for the Gaels stranded on foreign shores because of domestic policy failures. The coming week will be no exception.
Today, it is claimed by the far and not so far right that borders are open and the Irish domestic class have surrendered to the globalist elites. It is claimed that people are pouring in through airports and ports as well as across our international land border near Dundalk. Moreover, there is a line of argument that many Irish people are forced to emigrate because their jobs, livelihoods and homes are being taken by foreigners. Let’s spoil some of this rhetoric with statistics. However, first it is necessary to clarify some legal and institutional issues relating to migration.
The legal context
Ireland is a member of the European Union and this carries duties as well as rights when it comes to the free movement of people, goods and services. Citizens of other EU Member States as well as countries in the European Economic Area (which includes Switzerland, Iceland and Norway) have a right to live and work or study in Ireland. The right to stay here is qualified in regards to entitlement to welfare for non-working immigrants from the European Union. Any EU/EEA citizen can stay longer than three months (or six months if they are seeking work) provided that they meet one of a list of criteria which includes enrolment in education, employment or one is a family member of an EU citizen qualified to live here reside.
Because of various bilateral agreements between Ireland and the UK, Irish and British citizens have a right to live and work in these islands.
Citizens who are not from the EEA or UK may stay in Ireland for longer than 3 months on particular conditions. These relate to work or study. Permission to stay in Ireland after three months is given for a fixed period but may be renewed. Persons applying for permission must register with immigration services and get an Irish Residence Permit. Persons travelling to Ireland for less than three months from some countries require a Visa.
Non-EEA or non-UK Persons wishing to work in Ireland must have an employment permit or have been granted a permission to reside in Ireland that allows them to work. There are many different types of employment permits. The two most common are General Employment Permits and Critical Skills Employment Permits. Persons wishing to invest in Ireland or start a business here are subject to special provisions. The information on the above is taken from citizensinformation.ie
We are obliged to process applications for International Protection (IP) from people who arrive in Ireland and are seeking asylum. IP applicants can stay in Ireland while they are waiting for their claim to be processed but cannot work in the first six months of arriving.
Ireland has signed up to the 1951 United Nations Convention Relating to the Status of Refugees. We are obliged to provide protection to refugees who are fleeing from their home country due to ‘a well-founded fear of persecution because of reasons including their race, religion, nationality, membership of a particular social group or political opinion’. Refugees are entitled to apply for “family reunification” to bring their immediate family members (within certain criteria) to Ireland.
Since March 2022, Temporary Protection has been given to Ukrainian citizens temporary rights to reside and work here. These have been treated up to now more or less on the same basis as EEA or UK citizens although from today onwards there is a significant disimprovement in accommodation and financial support.
Statistical trends
Typically, emigration peaks during times of economic stagnation or decline such as in the late 1980’s and the years during and immediately following the economic collapse of 2008-2012. Immigration surged in the period 2005-2007 reflecting a very buoyant economy as well as the arrival of new Member States to the EU. Following the disruption caused by Covid significant levels of inward migration were recorded in the years ending April 2022 and in April 2023. See Figure 5. A number of factors are relevant, here, including a rebound from the restrictions on international travel during 2020-2021 as well as the unrelenting pressure of conflicts and economic conditions in poorer countries of the globe. Not least, the impact of the war in the Ukraine triggered large scale immigration by temporary refugees from that conflict.
In a two-year period from April 2021 to April 2023, an estimated quarter of a million persons arrived here. This is a large increase compared but not as large as happened in 2006-2007 when almost 260,000 persons arrived. Set against this, 120,000 emigrated over the two-year period to April 2023 implying a net inward migration figure of 130,000 or 2.5%. The upward pressure on total population was due in large part to the sudden and unexpected arrival of refugees from the Ukraine (around 40,000 arrived up to late 2023 but some 20,000 returned or left for another country in the course of the last two years). In the 12 months ending April 2023 an estimated total of 141,600 immigrated into Ireland. Of these, 29,600 were returning Irish immigrants, 26,100 were citizens of other EU States, 4,800 were UK citizens and 81,100 were citizens of other parts of the world including non-EU States other than the UK. An estimated 42,000 of the latter number were Ukrainian citizens. See figure 6.
What is visually striking about this Figure is the relatively limited extent of immigration by International Projection (IP) applicants shown in red. What also stands out is the extent of immigration from the EU especially before the crash of 2008-2012 and from ‘Other’ countries (but excluding IP) in recent years. The latter is typified by migrants from countries such as India and Brazil. Although the extent of IP migration has increased significantly since 2021 it is averaging around 10-13% of total immigration. In 2023, 13,227 persons applied for asylum status (representing 0.25% of the total population). In other words for every 400 persons in the population one asylum seeker arrives each year. The total number of asylum seekers at any one point in time is about 26,000 in recent months – representing one in 200 persons. This hardly constitutes evidence of Ireland being suddenly overwhelmed even if for reasons not due to immigration accommodation is extremely difficult to come by. The accommodation and home crisis is a result of four decades of bad public policy and misdirected investment and not due to the uptake in immigration since 2021. It is sometimes suggested that immigrants are pushing Irish people to emigrate because of competition for jobs and services. This is not so. The outward flow of migrants shows that over 50% of emigrants in recent years are not Irish citizens. Since the years of significant outward migration due the economic collapse of 2008-, inward migration of Irish citizens exceeded outward migration for most years from 2017 onwards. There was a very small net outward migration among Irish citizens in the two years ending April 2023 (see Figure 7).
How does Ireland compare with other EU States? Unfortunately, 2021 is the latest year for which Eurostat data are available on immigration. Since 2021 was an exceptional year due to the impact of covid, I thought it best to use a measure of net migration averaging out over a 9-year period. This period spans the influx of refugees to Europe from Syria among other countries as well as the period of economic stagnation in Ireland following the earlier crash. Expressed as numbers per 1,000 of population, the map in Figure 8 shows that net inward migration relative to population over the decade has been somewhat higher in Ireland than in other countries. Over 9 years, net immigration was highest in Malta and Luxembourg followed by Sweden, Austria, Germany and the Netherlands. Ireland was in 7th position at 3.5 persons per 1,000 of population. For sure, Ireland has a relatively high rate of inward migration. However, the relative position has not shifted where, in 2021, it was still 7th in a ranking of EU States.
A comparison of first-time residence permits issued to non-EU citizens in 2022 shows that Ireland is unusual to the extent that education accounted for almost half of all permits. The EU27 average was 13%. However, the proportion due to ‘other reasons’ including international protection was slightly less than the EU average. Both employment and family related permits were significantly less in Ireland compared to the EU average.
Although the available data leave much to be desired in terms of timeliness and precision, they do indicate that Ireland is by no means awash with immigrants compared to the rest of Europe. However, a combination of economic good fortune, a rebound from covid and the unrelenting pressure of climate change and regional conflicts have put huge pressure on an already strained system of asylum seeking. International Protection plus the surge in war refugees from the Ukraine is where much of the adversarial debate and protest has focussed in very recent times. In my next blog I turn my attention, specially, to asylum seekers before considering the situation in regards to Ukrainian migrants in the next blog after that.
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