Immigration and crime - is there a link in Ireland?

 

It is curious how often one hears some people saying ‘And I am not a racist, but…..’ or ‘How dare anyone call me far-right or a racist when I am just pointing out that communities should be listened to’.  What are some people in some communities saying and why? Clearly, communities are concerned about resources, access to housing and public services. But is there something else going on? We hear of communities concerned about single men of a certain age-group especially where they are located near creches and schools. Really? The concern seems to be articulated especially but not exclusively when it concerns men from Africa or the middle east. None of this is racist or even sexist? Really?

What can the data tell us about crime and safety when it comes to citizenship or race?  Data on race and crime is either not collected or used in Ireland but if it were we need to be cautious.  Were it the case that – and there is no evidence that it is – crime and migrant status were correlated it does not necessarily follow that crime is caused by a particular racial group. It was widely said and claimed that Irish emigrants drank a lot and inhabited a lot of prison places in the England of the 1950s. Were this true it would still raise questions about the interaction between poverty, family structure, education, opportunity, addiction, homelessness and social exclusion. 

The international evidence including that for the United States is not conclusive in relation to criminality and migrant status there.  Ousey and Kubrin (2018) in Immigration and Crime: Assessing a Contentious Issue found, in a synthesis of 51 US studies covering 2004-2014, that the immigration-crime association is actually negative—but very weak.  Bianchi, Buonanno and Pinotti (2012) found in Do Immigrants Cause Crime that in Italy during the period 1990-2003 the size of the immigrant population was positively correlated with the overall crime rate.  However, using various statistical control methods they found that the correlation with overall crime rates disappears except for robberies.  Sali, Kivivuori and Aaltonen in Correlates of Immigrant Youth Crime in Finland studied delinquency rates among native and immigrant youth in Finland from 2012 data.  They found that several forms of delinquency were more prevalent among immigrants than among native youth. However, ‘multivariate analyses indicated that routine activities and parental control were related to the immigrant youths’ higher risk of active delinquency. After adjusting for a wide range of background variables, the immigrants’ higher risk of delinquency decreased, but remained significant’.  They noted that ‘immigrants are overrepresented in the crime statistics of many European countries’.  Context, the presence of structural issues greatly complicate the relationship.  Researchers and policy makers cannot jump to conclusions.

Here in Ireland there are no published data on the incidence of crime by nationality or ethnic background.  The Central Statistics office, which has access to data on crime from administrative records of the Garda Síochána has stated that user needs in crime statistics that are not currently met include ‘nationality, citizenship and ethnicity of crime victims and offenders’ See here. 

In Probation and Re-Offending Statistics, 2019 published by the CSO, the rate of re-offending is estimated by matching records from data collated by the Irish Probation Service with the Garda PULSE data.  No data were collected on ethnic background of nationality.  However, the results indicated that probationers’ median weekly earnings were 30% below those of non-probationers. The CSO also reported that crime is disproportionately higher among young males under the age of 25. These findings are not surprising and illustrate the significance of complex socio-economic and demographic factors in explaining anti-social or criminal behaviour.

Given the lack of evidence for any causal link between ethnicity, nationality and crime it is very irresponsible of some politicians and some community members to presume or claim that particular groups are more prone than others to offend. Indeed, the Garda Síochána have not reported any increase in crime in the immediate vicinity of reception centres or locations where above average numbers of asylum seekers live. However, it is clear that there have been numerous public order offences committed by a minority of persons engaged in acts of arson against premises proposed or rumoured to be in line for development as reception centres.